There are 533 English constituencies. (Vote Swap does not cover Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland).
Based on a mix of surveys and sources, we have identified:
- 93 official Labour target seats.
- 11 official Green target seats.
- 13 seats that are not official Labour targets but which the party has a chance of winning.
- 32 at-risk Labour seats.
- 1 at-risk Green seat (Brighton Pavillion).
- 147 Labour seats that are likely to be safe.
- 223 seats that Labour is highly unlikely to win.
- 5 seats that are both Labour and Green targets (Bristol West, Cambridge, Norwich South, Reading East, Sheffield Central), 2 seats where the presence of other parties means our model doesn't apply (Bradford West, Wyre Forest), and 12 Labour seats and 13 Tory/UKIP seats on the borderline of marginal and safe. In these cases we don’t facilitate vote swapping and have excluded them from the tally below.
In total, we identify 131 seats where Labour needs every vote to win or hold the seat, and 370 seats in which there is little or no doubt about whether Labour wins or loses. So there are 131 seats in which Green supporters should seek to swap their vote. And 370 seats where Labour voters should look for a vote swap.
That way Green voters in battleground seats can help beat a Tory without harming their own party’s vote share. And Labour voters in safe seats can – sometimes for the first time – cast their vote in a way that will affect the outcome.